Faith & Valor

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Natural Experiments

I write these thoughts with the goal of being relevant any time.  They’re often written a year or more in advance of when they publish.  This keeps me from reacting too quickly and forces me to think about the temporality of the thought. 

And yet there are events that call forth a response.  The COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 is one of those times.  As I write this, we are early in the disruption: schools have closed indefinitely and rules and regulations change hourly.  It’s a very uncertain feeling.  This time is, as the President noted, unprecedented in the modern era.  There are very few models for how people are supposed to respond.  

This pandemic is creating what researchers call a natural experiment. These are rare occurrences that allow researchers to study phenomena in conditions and circumstances that could not be created in any other way.   

In this context, I have received dozens of emails from organizations informing me of their response to the outbreak.  In almost no other situation would dozens of companies write, much less send these types of emails at the same time. Some have been reactive, others thoughtful.  Some have been action-oriented and others mission-grounded.  It’s been fascinating to watch.  

These emails bring out the essence of what the organization believes and how they behave.  

The responses seem to fall into a few categories:

  1. We’re still open for business — please come

  2. We’ve got your back — don’t worry

  3. We’re doing everything we can — please trust us

  4. We’re doing everything we can — it’s not our fault

  5. We have no idea what’s going on — and neither do you

  6. We’re raising your rates — you know, cuz Corona and stuff

Crisis is extraordinary pressure and when pressured, what’s inside comes out.  This is where the wheat separates from the chaff.  Well run nonprofit organizations, for example double-down on their purpose because they can’t not, if you’ll pardon the double negative. Others, ask for more money. 

Churches have provided an extraordinary model.  Some have shifted their focus to delivering their Sunday services online with the panache of a TV production.  Others have downshifted their gloss and glitter to something more ‘unplugged’ and still some have simply gotten to work meeting the needs of the community.  What the Church believes about itself comes out when the church doors are closed.  

We are choosing who to follow now that we see the essence on the inside.  Organizations cannot opt out of the experiment.  Our money and commitments are shifting because organizations (and leaders) are distilled to their essence. The results are in.